Values of R0 producing the smallest CIs
| λ . | R0 . | CI, % . | 
|---|---|---|
| 1/25 | 600 | 89 | 
| 1/30 | 300 | 73 | 
| 1/35 | 300 | 64 | 
| 1/40 | 300 | 32 | 
| 1/45 | 300 | 61 | 
| 1/50 | 200 | 94 | 
| λ . | R0 . | CI, % . | 
|---|---|---|
| 1/25 | 600 | 89 | 
| 1/30 | 300 | 73 | 
| 1/35 | 300 | 64 | 
| 1/40 | 300 | 32 | 
| 1/45 | 300 | 61 | 
| 1/50 | 200 | 94 | 
Although 1 per 30 and 1 per 35 weeks have the widest acceptable range of R0, the method of Table 1 does not account for how central the true values are to the simulated CIs. To address this, we determined which combination of λ and R0 produced the smallest CIs in increments of 1%. We found that λ = 1 per 40 weeks with R0 = 300 resulted in the shortest CIs covering the values of 4 criterion values from the data (Figure 3; and “Determining acceptable values of λ and R0”), and thus consider these to be the best estimates.